Local Recession Thoughts + Happy Thanksgiving

While some recent pundits have predicted all doom and gloom for the housing market, I think Nashville is still in a stronger position than other markets nationally.

Why? Our job market is strong and people still want to live here.

Nashville/Davidson/Murfreesboro/Columbia, TN Unemployment Rate is at 2.50%, compared to 2.80% last month and 3.10% last year. This is lower than the long-term average of 4.80%.

According to Greater Nashville REALTORS®️, of the six recessions Nashville has weathered in the last 60 years, only one of those downturns resulted in a price decline in home sales. Every other time, prices held steady or gained value, including the recession brought on by the early days of the pandemic. Since February of 2020, the median sales price in Nashville has risen 48%, signaling that recessions can have the opposite effect many experts are predicting.

Steve Jolly, President of Greater Nashville REALTORS®️ notes that the reason the Great Recession was so tough on homeowners was that Nashville had a lot more housing supply than demand.

“We have the exact opposite problem now,” he said. “We are a more resilient city. People want to live here. I think demand will stay high for a while. Prices aren’t declining. They are holding steady.”

While the higher interest rates can reduce a Buyer’s purchase power, Buyers are getting creative with financing these days, revisiting the possibilities of adjustable-rate mortgages for the first time in many years. Sellers are also adjusting by offering 2/1 rate buydowns for Buyers vs listing price reductions.

Have questions about rate buydowns, ARMs, or the market in general? Reach out and I’m happy to chat.

I recently made these Pumpkin Cheesecake Bites to share with co-workers, and I think they would go over well on a Thanksgiving dessert table. I use Trader Joe’s Triple Ginger Snaps for the crust and they add a great kick to a decadent little treat. I find bite-sized squares to be more user-friendly than larger bars since they are rich, but you can make them as big or small as you like.

I also like that there is no water bath or springform pan required, the below photo is when they came out of the oven with just parchment and a baking pan.

The recipe is also below: Enjoy!

Pumpkin Cheesecake Bars/Bites – Adapted from Erin McDowell, NY Times

Yield: About 15 bars or 30 Bites


  • 10 ½ounces/300 grams gingersnap cookies (I use Trader Joe’s Triple Ginger Snaps)
  • 2 tablespoons granulated sugar
  • ¼ teaspoon kosher salt
  • ½ cup/115 grams unsalted butter (1 stick), melted


  • 1½ pounds/680 grams cream cheese, at room temperature
  • 1 cup/200 grams granulated sugar
  • ½ cup/110 grams light brown sugar
  • 6 large eggs
  • 1 tablespoon vanilla extract
  • 1½ teaspoons pumpkin pie spice
  • 1 (15-ounce/425-gram) can pumpkin purée (not pumpkin pie filling)
  1. Step 1 Heat the oven to 375 degrees. Lightly grease a 9-by-13-inch pan and line with parchment paper, leaving a 2-inch overhang on two sides.
  2. Step 2 Make the crust: In a food processor, pulse the cookies until they form fine crumbs (you will have about 2½ cups of crumbs). Transfer the crumbs to a medium bowl, and stir in the sugar and salt. Add the melted butter and mix until evenly incorporated. Press the crust into an even layer in the base of the prepared pan.
  3. Step 3 Bake until the crust has browned slightly and appears set, 10 to 12 minutes. Cool completely. Reduce oven temperature to 325 degrees.
  4. Step 4 Make the filling: Wipe out the bowl of the food processor, and place the cream cheese, sugar, and brown sugar inside. Pulse until the mixture is fully combined. Add the eggs one at a time and pulse until incorporated, scraping down the sides of the food processor bowl as needed.
  5. Step 5 Add the vanilla and pumpkin pie spice, and pulse until combined. If desired, reserve 1/2 cup of the cheesecake batter in a small bowl to make a swirl effect later.
  6. Step 6 Add the pumpkin to the remaining cheesecake batter, and pulse until fully incorporated. Pour the pumpkin cheesecake into the cooled crust. If using, slowly pour the reserved white cheesecake batter over the pumpkin cheesecake batter in a slow, thin stream, and use a toothpick or wooden skewer to swirl the two batters together. (If you pour too quickly, the white batter will sink inside the pumpkin.)
  7. Step 7 Bake the cheesecake until the edges appear set and the center still appears slightly jiggly, 35 to 40 minutes. Cool at room temperature for 45 minutes, then refrigerate until firm (at least 2 hours, up to overnight). Use a sharp knife to release the edges and use the parchment paper to carefully lift the cheesecake from the pan and transfer it to a cutting board. Slice into 15-30 even pieces, wiping the knife between cuts for the cleanest edges. (I prefer small, single bite-sized pieces since it is so rich)


  • The cheesecake bars can be made up to 2 days ahead and stored refrigerated. After cutting, the bars will hold in the refrigerator for up to 5 days.

Wishing all of you a Happy Thanksgiving, be it with friends, family, or both!

Until next time,